Call for industry: Training and methodology consultancy on scenario building in the context of risk analysis for law enforcement


Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, plays a crucial role in supporting EU Member States and Schengen-associated countries in managing the EU's external borders. As a central component of European integrated border management, Frontex conducts comprehensive analysis on risks impacting the EU's external borders.

Frontex’s risk analysis activities fall into three categories: strategic analysis, operational analysis and third-country analysis. Strategic analysis is aimed at high-level strategic decision-makers, while operational analysis supports Frontex-coordinated joint operations. Third-country analysis focuses on long-term cooperation with external partners in regions from which threats and challenges posed to the EU external border originate and pass through (Western Balkans, Turkey, Eastern Partnership and Africa).

In complex, dynamic, and uncertain environments, scenario building is crucial for developing plausible alternative futures, enhancing preparedness, and aiding decision-making processes and strategic foresight. Moreover, according to EBCG Art. 9(5) of Regulation (EU) 2019/1896, contingency plans and national capability development plans for European integrated border management should be based on scenarios derived from risk analysis.

These scenarios should reflect the potential evolution of the situation at external borders, especially in the area of illegal immigration, as well as challenges identified in the multiannual strategic policy cycle.

To comply with these requirements and ensure efficient scenario analysis and planning, Frontex and the European Border and Coast Guard community need a tailor-made framework encompassing training, processes, methodologies, and tools. This framework will support the development and implementation of contingency plans, enabling a more comprehensive and effective approach to border management and return operations across EU Member States.

We invite you to participate in our market research survey, which aims to gather insights on systematic education and approaches related to the development of future scenarios in risk analysis within the law enforcement domain.

To contribute, please complete the survey.

Frontex seeks to understand the training and methodology aspects of the market in order to customize solutions that address the unique needs and challenges faced by law enforcement agencies. Based on the market response to the survey, the Agency might organize a dedicated Industry Day, inviting relevant service providers to an online meeting to further clarify their proposed solution.

Your valuable feedback is greatly appreciated and must be submitted by the non-extendable deadline of 6 June 2023.

If you are interested in participating in any procurement procedures initiated by Frontex, please access the following link: Open / Restricted Tender Procedures and Low & Middle Value Negotiated Procedures.

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