ARA 2014 2014-05-14 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2014.pdf (11 MB) Frontex Annual Risk Analysis 2014 presents a European summary of trends and developments along the external borders of the Member States of the EU. It focuses on describing current challenges that are likely to impact on operations coordinated along the external borders. It presents the latest update regarding the situation before the border, at the border and after the border. Before the border Data ... Read more
ARA 2010 2010-03-01 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2010.pdf (464.9 KB) In 2009, there was a significant decrease in illegal migration at the EU external borders compared to 2008. This decreasing trend was the result of two factors: firstly, employment opportunities, which are the main pull factor for illegal migration to the EU, were reduced by the global economic downturn, and secondly, there was a strong deterrent effect of more effective border controls between ... Read more
ARA 2015 2015-04-27 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2015.pdf (11.7 MB) In 2014, detections of illegal border-crossing reached a new record, with more than 280 000 detections. The unprecedented number of migrants crossing illegally the external borders has roots in the fighting in Syria that has resulted in the worst refugee crisis since the Second World War. Indeed, most of the detections at the borders concerned migrants from Syria, who later applied for asylum within ... Read more
Western Balkans Annual Risk Analysis 2012 2012-05-15 The third Western Balkans Annual Risk Analysis Report (WB ARA 2012) published by Frontex assesses the situation at the common borders between Western Balkan countries and neighbouring EU Member States. The analysis shows that the irregular migration flows have further evolved during 2011 with the Slovenian-Croatian border being clearly the busiest EU external land border section. This situation was driven by three main factors: the extension of visa liberalisation for biometric passport holders ... Read more
EB ARA 2013 2013-07-02 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/EB_ARA_2013.pdf (3.9 MB) In 2012, border security at the borders between Member States and Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the Russian Federation (common borders) was shaped by several interlinking factors. First, overall regular passenger flows continued to grow in 2012, most notably at the Polish-Russian (+70%) and Norwegian-Russian (roughly +30%) borders. The growth was driven by expanding legal travel channels and long-term economic ... Read more
WB ARA 2015 2015-05-12 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/WB_ARA_2015.pdf (4.2 MB) New and unprecedented high numbers were reported across several indicators used to measure regional irregular migration risks during 2014. For example, there were more than 66 000 detections of illegal border-crossing at regional and common green borders, a number 65% higher compared to 2013. Over two-thirds of all these detections occurred at one border section only: the Hungarian-Serbian, mostly in the period ... Read more
WB ARA 2016 2016-06-06 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/WB_ARA_2016.pdf (4.4 MB) Large-scale migration flow and border management/security The numbers of non-regional migrants transiting the Balkans reached unprecedented and extraordinary levels during 2015 with over 2 million illegal border-crossings reported by all the countries in the region. For comparison, this was roughly 30 times more than in 2014. For several years, the main routes have remained the same: Turkey-Greece-former Yugoslav ... Read more
WB ARA 2013 2013-06-07 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/WB_ARA_2013.pdf (3.3 MB) The Western Balkans has gone through rapid and significant changes regarding irregular migration trends following the introduction of visa-free travel arrangements with Member States and Schengen Associated Countries. For example, the region has transitioned from largely a source to mostly transit area in terms of illegal border-crossings. More precisely, almost three quarters of all detections of illegal ... Read more
WB ARA 2014 2014-07-21 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/WB_ARA_2014.pdf (2.6 MB) Overall, 2013 was a year of records. Starting with more than 40 000 detections for illegal border-crossing at regional and common green borders*, the number was 27% higher than during 2012. Half of all detections occurred at only one border section: Serbia-Hungary, mostly in the period between January and July 2013. The sharp rise of irregular flows at this border section clearly indicated how a change in asylum ... Read more
WB ARA 2012 2012-05-15 Files available for download Publications/Risk_Analysis/WB_ARA_2012.pdf (4.3 MB) The geographical position of the Western Balkans, extensive regional trade and good road infrastructure regularly produce large cross-border flows of people and goods. Regular flow in both directions at the Slovenian-Croatian border, for example, exceeded 47 million persons and 21 million vehicles in 2011. The two numbers represented roughly 6% and 5% increases, respectively, compared to 2010. The ... Read more