The Frontex Annual Risk Analysis (ARA) 2026/2027 is a publicly available strategic risk analysis report that identifies the key risks to the external borders of the EU, based on a regional approach. Risks for EIBM in the air, land and sea domain are intertwined and multifaceted to the point of constituting a strategic and operational continuum between the internal and external security of the EU. EIBM intelligence is a pre-requisite for effective and cost-efficient operations that are based on the best available data, enabling sound policy and decision-making by operational actors.
The ARA is exclusively focused on the main risks on entry to the EU, across thematic areas, within a time horizon of one year from the time of publication (Q3 2026–Q3 2027). Even though the Channel route on exit is outside the scope of this report, it has several implications for secondary movements and therefore for the EU’s cooperation with third countries.
The Channel route is the final leg of secondary movements towards the UK, mainly involving migrants who arrived in the EU on the Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes (Bangladeshis, Somalis, Pakistanis, Afghans, Sudanese, Yemenis) and the Western Balkan route (Turks, Egyptians, Afghans). It is also used by migrants who arrived in the EU legally with visas for work or study or from visa-free countries.
The report offers conclusions on the main risks to inform policy and strategic decision-making. This analysis of the escalation of the geopolitical landscape, cross-border crime, hybrid threats and operational risks deriving from the biggest transformation of EU migration and asylum management provides a comprehensive overview of future threats and challenges that could jeopardise the security and smooth functioning of the EU’s external borders.