Frontex has issued the first Annual Risk Assessment from the West Balkans Risk Analysis Network (WB-RAN), produced from analysis of available statistical data from the whole of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, additional information from participating WB-RAN countries and relevant Frontex-coordinated joint operations. Three distinct trends are apparent from the analysis.
In terms of size, the greatest irregular migration flow is of Albanians from Albania (and Kosovo) to EU Member States. This is for the most part economically driven, circular in character and focuses mainly on the low-skilled, low-wage and informal sectors of the economy, with a strong seasonal character. Albanian irregular migration affects mostly Greece and Italy, with the Albania-Greece land border accounting for nearly 95% of the regional total irregular migratory pressure in the first quarter of 2010, up from 90% in 2009.
The second noticeable trend is of onward movement of irregular migrants transiting via the Greek-Turkish border. This is typically towards Hungary and is composed of migrants from southern Asia, the Middle-East and Africa. Roughly a third of all irregular migrants passing through Greece have opted for the Balkan land route via the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia. The reasons for this choice seem to be its accessibility, affordability and relatively low risk.
The third flow is much smaller and consists largely of Turkish nationals arriving in the Western Balkans by air as legal travellers and then moving on to the EU either clandestinely, through the use of false documents, or across land borders.