Today, Frontex is unveiling its annual Risk Analysis for 2023/2024, providing a comprehensive overview of the challenges at the European Union’s external borders, including the migratory trends, the long-term ramifications of the war in Ukraine and the evolution of cross-border crime.
Key takeaways include predictions of factors influencing future migration patterns, as well as potential changes in smuggling and trafficking patterns. Notably, the Central Mediterranean has emerged as a primary region of interest requiring heightened scrutiny. This can be attributed to a deteriorating socioeconomic climate in origin and transit countries, further compounded by humanitarian crises and political unrest in parts of the Middle East and South Asia.
Meanwhile, irregular land border crossings might decline, largely due to the expanded presence of border barriers and a boost in border guard personnel serving as preventive measures.
The report also discusses document fraud, terrorism, and other cross-border crimes ranging from drug and firearms smuggling to human trafficking. Frontex identifies forthcoming challenges, among which are the long-term effects of the ongoing Ukraine conflict and the potential strategic use of irregular migration.